The markets have been very challenging in 2022. Through late May the S&P is drawdown has thus far peaked 19.9%(let's call that 20%), the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 is off 31%, and world indices are negative 18 to -25% in local currency terms. In other words, it has been a very tough year and it is not likely to get better anytime soon.....or is it? This last point gets to the premise of this post. What is the outlook for the markets? It is the one question which everyone has an opinion. It is the one that almost every guest in CNBC or the financial news is asked as soon as they arrive. This question drives debate, it drives passionate
We are certainly living in interesting times. Not that we are not optimistic about the opportunities in front of us...we ARE. But the temperature of financial markets and investment valuations are a bit, shall we say....hot. So, I share with you one of the poems that my father in his ultimate wisdom not only shared with me and my siblings, but made me commit to memory...and oh has it come in handy. It is one world's greatest poems from one of my favorite poets - Rudyard Kipling, which I think is just so appropriate for today's climate....make of this what you will. "If" by Rudyard Kipling..... If— by Rudyard Kipling | Poetry FoundationIf you can keep your head when all about youPoetry FoundationRudyard
We are seeing history repeat itself...and you do NOT want to miss this one! So, just as we saw the FinTech boom created from the crisis of the banking crisis, we are now witnessing a Boom in Health created from the Covid-19 crisis.
So, let's stop pretending that the market knows and better yet, stop reacting to the fear (and greed) created by your sense that the market "knows" and get back to knowing what you own and why you own it.
Intellectus is excited to announce another transformational hire, Jeff Saccacio as Head of Wealth Planning & Family Office Services
Aurora is pioneering a new method of truly proprietary data capture and analysis. Imagine, a virtual map of all of the radio signals in the air at any given moment! Now imagine all of this data running through a world class Machine Learning & artificial Intelligence platform. This is Aurora Insight Aurora Insight emerges from stealth with $18M and a new take on measuring wireless spectrum 1e3)g=1e3;else if(~~g
The US Treasury Yield curve inverted today for the first time in more than a decade. The yield on the 10 year bond has fallen below the yield on the 2 year bond. This is generally considered an important consequence of economic policy and slowing growth. The consensus is that it generally precedes recessions. Our question was, how do stock returns perform once this signal has been triggered? The Graph below is the 2/10 Yield curve since 1975. Please Note : (White Line is the 2/10 Curve) (The horizontal green line is the Zero line for the curve) 1.The Fed Funds rate(yellow) was STILL RISING post ALL of these points of inversion(vertical lines). 2.Also note that the 1 year return for
As you will see in the following pages, we have been hard art work looking for what are the best values in the marketplace. The October selloff as expected has begun to open up opportunities for us. While we have been saying for quite awhile that a correction was due, and that we would continue to see “growth scares”, we have been very patient at adding equity exposure. Rightly so. Now that the market has hit a generic 10% correction, we deem this level as proper to get a bit more proactive on names. We are not yet calling a market bottom. Frankly, we think there is going to be continued volatility. But, we are now at the point where we begin to prepare for that
With the recent volatility we wanted to share some of our thoughts on what is happening , and how we think about these types of interruptions of the Bull Market. Markets are hard to predict, so we do not really spend too much time on predicting them. What we do is look for powerful trends, innovation, great management teams and undervalued companies. Each and every analyst, portfolio manager or trader that interacts with our capital has the same high bar to achieve. Make sure that the capital invested is allocated in the most optimal long term risk adjusted method as possible. The investments that we own carry a strong combination of accelerating revenue and profit growth along with generally undemanding valuations. The large majority of single names
Profit margins in Japan are quietly surging. This is a phenomenon that we certainly have been seeing in the US for years, and incrementally in Europe. But, the rate of change in Japan is in fact, far better than the other two. Better yet, as the Wall Street Journal points out, with Net Margins at just about 6%, they have room for further improvement as they still lag these other developed markets. Since Abenomics has begun, the productivity of working age population 25-54 year old has risen sharply, from 80% to more than 85%. But the biggest evidence is in the change in real GDP per working age adult. After years of lagging the US, it is now accelerating faster than the US in recent years.
As we have been calling for since the end of last year, there is indeed regime change in the markets. Our point was that the framework of the interest rate deck has changed. The next several years will be different because of this. What it means obviously is yet to be determined. But what really strikes me when I look at this chart below is this: The beginning of this enviornment was when we were reeling from the crisis. Frankly, at the time most of the market participants thought we were still deeply IN it. That is when Mohammed El Erian coined the term "New Normal". It was my opinion that term was really a pejorative for "cant really grow anymore". Well,
What is happening in the markets now. Change is sometimes uncomfortable. It’s been too long since we have had a correction, so one was due. We are off more than 5% from the recent high. A 5% correction is a must and needed event to take the speculators out. We typically get two corrections of this size per year. Interestingly, it has been over 400 days since we have had one. Good opportunities begin to present themselves upon these downlegs, but a 10% or more correction could clearly be in the cards given the extent of this previous move. That said, there is already quite a bit of consternation about this sell off and it did seem as though this was already feared. That usually
Crypto Currencies, Blockchain and the ICO Crypto currencies are a digital currency that uses encryption techniques to regulate the creation of currency and verify the transfer of funds, operating independently of any central bank. They are built on top of a Blockchain, which is a digital ledger in which transactions made in bitcoin or another cryptocurrency are recorded chronologically and publicly. While not exactly new, the Blockchain and Crypto currencies may be hitting critical mass and are now simultaneously upending multiple industries. They will eventually disrupt almost all industries. The ICO may be it's first "Killer App". The world of finance in particular is directly in it’s line of sight. Because token holders need only hold private keys to guarantee custody, it means
We are proud to announce another significant addition to the Intellectus Team. Alice Wu, the former President of Robertson Stephens, Head of Asia Region has joined Intellectus. Alice will be based in our San Francisco office and will frequently be spending time in Asia. Please welcome Alice to the team! Our press release is below: Silicon Valley-based Independent Wealth Management Firm, Intellectus Partners, Hires Alice Wu as Head of Asia Pacific Region, Wealth Creation & Preservation NEW YORK, NY, June 20, 2017–Intellectus Partners today announced that the firm has expanded its leadership team with the addition of Alice Wu as Head of Asia Pacific Region, Wealth Creation & Preservation. Ms. Wu joins Intellectus Partners from Robertson Stephens where she was a Managing Director and President
"If a capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk back in the early 1900s, he should have shot Orville Wright." So said Warren Buffet in 2003. My how things change...Great investors are never dogmatic. As you may recall from our post three months ago(Nov 11, 2016), we have been unabashed bulls on the airline sector for a very long time. In a nutshell, we think capacity discipline and the rationalization of the US airline industry are driving significant efficiencies (not to mention the indirect benefit that they receive from all of the oil and gas that the US is pumping). This is likely to lead to real value creation In fact, we think it already is. Just last week, Delta announced that