Equities

A -post collection

Inverted Yield Curves and stock returns

The US Treasury Yield curve inverted today for the first time in more than a decade. The yield on the 10 year bond has fallen below the yield on the 2 year bond. This is generally considered an important consequence of economic policy and slowing growth. The consensus is that it generally precedes recessions. Our question was, how do stock returns perform once this signal has been triggered? The Graph below is the 2/10 Yield curve since 1975. Please Note : (White Line is the 2/10 Curve) (The horizontal green line is the Zero line for the curve) 1.The Fed Funds rate(yellow) was STILL RISING post ALL of these points of inversion(vertical lines). 2.Also note that the 1 year return for

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Equity market correction historical tidbits

A few interesting historical contexts of market corrections/bears….. The header graphic shows the extreme level of capitulation that the markets have expressed through this week. This shows the percentage of stocks above their 200 day moving average. It is nearly as low as the GFC bottom and below all others. There is nothing magic about the number, but when put into historical context shows how this market action compares to previous extremes. As of Tuesday Dec 26, the current market correction is the 5th fastest this century to a 20% correction, widely considered the threshold for a “Bear Market”. Higher speed corrections are generally correlated with meaningful but shorter duration bear markets, while slower drawdowns have generally been associated with more durable weak economic periods

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