Global Bonds are clearly in a bubble. It has been said that a bubble cannot be a bubble unless there is greed and speculation. How could that be the case in the Government bond market? Below is the graph of the TLT ETF, which tracks the price of the 20 YR Treasury bond Index. Note the comparison in the rate of change to that which happened in the real crisis of 2008-09. Generally speaking markets accelerate near the beginning and the end of a major move. This is clearly not the beginning. Even
Macro
A -post collectionInverted Yield Curves and stock returns
The US Treasury Yield curve inverted today for the first time in more than a decade. The yield on the 10 year bond has fallen below the yield on the 2 year bond. This is generally considered an important consequence of economic policy and slowing growth. The consensus is that it generally precedes recessions. Our question was, how do stock returns perform once this signal has been triggered? The Graph below is the 2/10 Yield curve since 1975. Please Note : (White Line is the 2/10 Curve) (
Equity market correction historical tidbits
A few interesting historical contexts of market corrections/bears….. The header graphic shows the extreme level of capitulation that the markets have expressed through this week. This shows the percentage of stocks above their 200 day moving average. It is nearly as low as the GFC bottom and below all others. There is nothing magic about the number, but when put into historical context shows how this market action compares to previous extremes. As of Tuesday Dec 26, the current market correcti
Another growth scare...
With the recent volatility we wanted to share some of our thoughts on what is happening , and how we think about these types of interruptions of the Bull Market. Markets are hard to predict, so we do not really spend too much time on predicting them. What we do is look for powerful trends, innovation, great management teams and undervalued companies. Each and every analyst, portfolio manager or trader that interacts with our capital has the same high bar to achieve. Make sure that the capital i
Japan is still a good opportunity for patient investors
Profit margins in Japan are quietly surging. This is a phenomenon that we certainly have been seeing in the US for years, and incrementally in Europe. But, the rate of change in Japan is in fact, far better than the other two. Better yet, as the Wall Street Journal points out, with Net Margins at just about 6%, they have room for further improvement as they still lag these other developed markets. Since Abenomics has begun, the productivity of working age population 25-54 year old has risen sha
The Turkish Sudden Stop
The plunge in the Turkish Lira attributed to a tweet and a defiant speech. But underneath there was a “sudden stop” in the Turkish currency. In 1997 this happened in Indonesia that went from a darling in the eyes of foreign lenders to a nightmare. The rupiah crashed and Indonesia’s debt to GDP soared to 170 percent. Capital flows to Indonesia ‘stopped’ leaving financial markets in disarray. What followed next was contagion spreading across the South East Asia region. A key reason for contagion
"IntelleCator" release - Intellectus Proprietary Economic Index
As many of you know, the team at Intellectus Partners has been working on and refining a number of Quantitative driven analytics. Today we release our proprietary economic algorithmic indicator, which we have coined the "IntelleCator". We take this opportunity to further expand upon our findings and methodology. The idea is that our economic indicator will enable the team to have a nearly real-time pulse on the health of the broader economy. This in turn, will provide us a clearer perspective
A pro-cyclical correction and regime change
What is happening in the markets now. Change is sometimes uncomfortable. It’s been too long since we have had a correction, so one was due. We are off more than 5% from the recent high. A 5% correction is a must and needed event to take the speculators out. We typically get two corrections of this size per year. Interestingly, it has been over 400 days since we have had one. Good opportunities begin to present themselves upon these downlegs, but a 10% or more correction could clearly be in the
Tax policy, growth & the next two years
What are the possible outcomes from the expected and stated tax policies of the new Trump administration? Pragmatism v. Idealogy: What are the likely economic impacts? Two years without gridlock? Given that the deck is now stacked for conservatives in that they control the White House, House of representatives and the Senate ...and likely soon the Supreme Court, expect a whirlwind first two years. Here are some of our thoughts with assists from a few of our sell side coverage friends at some
The Effects of a Dollar Surge
Since the U.S. elections, the dollar has surged by 5 percent while emerging market currencies fell by double. When the value of the dollar spikes, global GDP on average has contracted by 2 percentage points in the past, and eventually dip into recession territory (see Figure 1). Currently, markets are in the “first inning” of a periods of rising rates, surging dollar and contracting global GDP. This combination could have two profound effects: dollar shortage and Fed balance sheet contraction.
What now? Take a deep breath.....we have been here before
Now that the American electorate has spoken,it is time to sharpen our focus on how tho think through this political earthquake: A "Republican" mandate? Not like you think...It's more like an Independant and a Republican Congress. Who is DJT? Is he really a Republican in a traditional sense? It depends upon how you define "traditional" I thought I would touch on some helpful historical analogies: 1.Today vs 1968-1980 2. DJT ~ Eisenhower and Teddy Roosevelt Now vs 1968: An argument could be ma
GDP Momentum
One of the key data releases next Thursday will be the first reading for Third Quarter U.S. GDP. GDP has been a “hot” topic of debate at the recent Boston Fed Conference as well as during the third Presidential Debate. The slowness of GDP has been worrisome, especially because despite a robust labor market, wages have lagged. If GDP stays slow, a tight labor market with modest wage growth may decelerate consumer spending. With an already fragile investment, trade and fiscal spending, a drop in c
"StallFlation"
In her recent speech, Federal Reserve Chair Yellen introduced a phrase that may determine how markets, economists and the public will think about the global economy going forward. Yellen suggested the Federal Reserve should allow the U.S. economy to turn into a "high pressure economy." That means an economy where labor markets are very tight, demand is robust and capital spending runs at a high rate. For Yellen to arrive at such a conclusion, there were four critical issues she highlighted for f
Could the global economy stall in the coming months?
The intellectus Partners Chief Economist Ben Emons on Bloomberg TV, discusses the global economy, the timing of the next Fed rate hike and the possibility of the global economy stalling in the coming months. He speaks to Bloomberg's Ramy Inocencio and Yvonne Man on "Daybreak Asia." (Source: Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-10-06/could-the-global-economy-stall-in-coming-months