politics

A -post collection

Another Day, Another Estate Tax Repeal…

Most clients have seen press reports about current tax proposals in Congress that promise significant changes to the taxation of individuals and businesses. H.R. 1, titled the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” was introduced to Congress on November 2nd and is in the early stages of its legislative journey through the House of Representatives and the Senate. Prospects for the adoption of all, some or any of its current components is unclear at this point. One of the elements of H.R. 1 in its current form is a future repeal of the Federal estate tax. Specifically, the following changes would be made to the estate and gift tax system in the U.S. as it currently stands: • Beginning January 1, 2018, the amount which

Read more

What now? Take a deep breath.....we have been here before

Now that the American electorate has spoken,it is time to sharpen our focus on how tho think through this political earthquake: A "Republican" mandate? Not like you think...It's more like an Independant and a Republican Congress. Who is DJT? Is he really a Republican in a traditional sense? It depends upon how you define "traditional" I thought I would touch on some helpful historical analogies: 1.Today vs 1968-1980 2. DJT ~ Eisenhower and Teddy Roosevelt Now vs 1968: An argument could be made that we have been in one of the most tumultuous periods in American History over the past decade or so. It is evidenced in the stock market behavior of the last 15 years. We have had two of the largest bear

Read more

Could there be a Brexit 2.0, and are the markets prepared?

Just as the Brexit outcome in the United Kingdom had very significant affects on global markets, I view real risk of a similar type of event happening in the United States with our Presidential election on Tuesday, November 8. Going into the vote in the UK, the world was sanguine about the chances of the British Citizenry actually voting for a "Leave". The punditry that nary has an independent thought and so often just writes what they are told, assured the world that the vote would be a non event. Even global betting markets had the odds skewed as if it were a sure thing that the British citizens would never be so dumb as to vote to leave. The scare mongering and independence bashing was

Read more

From Data Dependent to High Pressure

When quantitative easing (“QE”) ended 2014, the Fed adopted “data dependent.” When market volatility rose, the Fed used “data dependent” in communications. By lowering the probability of a hike, volatility and fears moderated (see Figure 1). The result of data dependent was the Fed needs a full year worth of data to justify one hike. Now data dependency has been two years in effect, how can investors anticipate a new policy by the Fed? Figure 1: Historical Probability of a Hike by December and VIX Index Source: Bloomberg. December probability implied from Fed Funds Futures. Probability = 100*(Dec Futures-Sep Futures)/0.125). The answer may be found in the return of a portfolio consisting out of S&P, Barclays Aggregate, Commodity and Currency indices. Figure

Read more

A Presidential Pull to Par

Elections and financial markets always had a relationship. Best known is the “Presidential Election Cycle of Investing.” This cycle shows stocks gain the most in the third year of a Presidential term, by an average of 0.75 to 2.5 per cent. For bonds, monthly returns in the third year were mostly negative by an average 2 percent based Barclays Index history. The history of returns is shown in Figure 1. A reason for this pattern in returns is when an incumbent President announces tax cuts and or spending increases, historically those policies get Congressional approval by the second year of the term. By the third to final year of the term, policies kick into effect and impact earnings and profits. In case of a

Read more