Global Bonds are clearly in a bubble. It has been said that a bubble cannot be a bubble unless there is greed and speculation. How could that be the case in the Government bond market? Below is the graph of the TLT ETF, which tracks the price of the 20 YR Treasury bond Index. Note the comparison in the rate of change to that which happened in the real crisis of 2008-09. Generally speaking markets accelerate near the beginning and the end of a major move. This is clearly not the beginning. Even
Intellectus Economic Intelligence
A -post collectionAnother growth scare...
With the recent volatility we wanted to share some of our thoughts on what is happening , and how we think about these types of interruptions of the Bull Market. Markets are hard to predict, so we do not really spend too much time on predicting them. What we do is look for powerful trends, innovation, great management teams and undervalued companies. Each and every analyst, portfolio manager or trader that interacts with our capital has the same high bar to achieve. Make sure that the capital i
An important test for all markets
As we have been calling for since the end of last year, there is indeed regime change in the markets. Our point was that the framework of the interest rate deck has changed. The next several years will be different because of this. What it means obviously is yet to be determined. But what really strikes me when I look at this chart below is this: The beginning of this enviornment was when we were reeling from the crisis. Frankly, at the time most of the market participants thought we were stil
A pro-cyclical correction and regime change
What is happening in the markets now. Change is sometimes uncomfortable. It’s been too long since we have had a correction, so one was due. We are off more than 5% from the recent high. A 5% correction is a must and needed event to take the speculators out. We typically get two corrections of this size per year. Interestingly, it has been over 400 days since we have had one. Good opportunities begin to present themselves upon these downlegs, but a 10% or more correction could clearly be in the
The Effects of a Dollar Surge
Since the U.S. elections, the dollar has surged by 5 percent while emerging market currencies fell by double. When the value of the dollar spikes, global GDP on average has contracted by 2 percentage points in the past, and eventually dip into recession territory (see Figure 1). Currently, markets are in the “first inning” of a periods of rising rates, surging dollar and contracting global GDP. This combination could have two profound effects: dollar shortage and Fed balance sheet contraction.
So, let's not lose focus on the ecomomy...it's not too bad
Let's start by just looking at market action. After nearly a decade of underperformance US financials are showing relative strength. They are indeed cheap on a book basis. But can there be any visibility into earnings growth? Could the end of the Obama years lead to better banking futures? The bank index is now testing multi year highs and happened to be up big in yesterdays massive rally. Here you have the Dow Jones Transportation index.As you can imagine, this is a very cyclical index and i
A Presidential Pull to Par
Elections and financial markets always had a relationship. Best known is the “Presidential Election Cycle of Investing.” This cycle shows stocks gain the most in the third year of a Presidential term, by an average of 0.75 to 2.5 per cent. For bonds, monthly returns in the third year were mostly negative by an average 2 percent based Barclays Index history. The history of returns is shown in Figure 1. A reason for this pattern in returns is when an incumbent President announces tax cuts and or
GDP Momentum
One of the key data releases next Thursday will be the first reading for Third Quarter U.S. GDP. GDP has been a “hot” topic of debate at the recent Boston Fed Conference as well as during the third Presidential Debate. The slowness of GDP has been worrisome, especially because despite a robust labor market, wages have lagged. If GDP stays slow, a tight labor market with modest wage growth may decelerate consumer spending. With an already fragile investment, trade and fiscal spending, a drop in c
"StallFlation"
In her recent speech, Federal Reserve Chair Yellen introduced a phrase that may determine how markets, economists and the public will think about the global economy going forward. Yellen suggested the Federal Reserve should allow the U.S. economy to turn into a "high pressure economy." That means an economy where labor markets are very tight, demand is robust and capital spending runs at a high rate. For Yellen to arrive at such a conclusion, there were four critical issues she highlighted for f
Risk Free Subsidies
Markets faceoff a crucial week of central bank meetings with the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. As recently doubts grew the BoJ could continue the course, Japanese interest rates rose sharply. When ECB President Draghi said a possible extension of quantitative easing not discussed, global rates experienced a “tantrum”. This phenomenon has become recurring since 2013 when the first “tantrum” appeared. Markets grapple how QE policies could formally end which explain why intere