We are big fans of using all tools available to derive insights for our investment views. In particular, alternative datasets are increasingly valuable, available and differentiated. The advent of Artificial Intelligence on the Investment court has changed how things are done quite a bit. The various A.I. techniques are finding their way into the top trading and research desks of investment managers and advisors. From Natural Language Processing(NLP), to Machine Vision, Deep Learning and others
Let's chat: Dialogue increases Value in Advisory.
The Entrepreneurial Lifecycle: As the New Year turns. I wanted to touch base on the lifecycle that we all go through and how to optimize the benefits of working with an Advisory firm like Intellectus Partners. There is a difference between investment management and Wealth Management. There is an even bigger difference in advising Entrepreneurs and execs in high growth companies and non-entrepreneurs regarding their finances. Most often clients come to Intellectus Partners at or near an exit an
Special Guest Post : The leading behavioral investment mistake
The leading behavioral investment mistake By Thomas Oberlechner, Chief Science Officer, TheHintBox!,Inc, a related company Biography: Thomas Oberlechner, Ph.D. Dr. Oberlechner is Chief Scientist at TheHintBox!,Inc, a related company to Intellectus Partners. He is also founder and partner of FinPsy LLC, a San Francisco based behavioral consultancy. He helps decision-makers in finance and investment integrate state-of-the art behavioral expertise into their decisions, products, and organization
Tax policy, growth & the next two years
What are the possible outcomes from the expected and stated tax policies of the new Trump administration? Pragmatism v. Idealogy: What are the likely economic impacts? Two years without gridlock? Given that the deck is now stacked for conservatives in that they control the White House, House of representatives and the Senate ...and likely soon the Supreme Court, expect a whirlwind first two years. Here are some of our thoughts with assists from a few of our sell side coverage friends at some
Buffet strikes again
As has been his unique habit, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has taken an aggressive stake in an industry. Berkshire has filed their Q3 2016 13F filing today and among them was a particularly outstanding item. He has acquired large stakes in an airline, no make that "ALL" four major airline companies, or, the entire industry. Warren Buffet has acquired stakes ranging from $300mm to $1bb in value in each of the legacy carriers, American Air, Delta and United Continental. He also took a stake
What now? Take a deep breath.....we have been here before
Now that the American electorate has spoken,it is time to sharpen our focus on how tho think through this political earthquake: A "Republican" mandate? Not like you think...It's more like an Independant and a Republican Congress. Who is DJT? Is he really a Republican in a traditional sense? It depends upon how you define "traditional" I thought I would touch on some helpful historical analogies: 1.Today vs 1968-1980 2. DJT ~ Eisenhower and Teddy Roosevelt Now vs 1968: An argument could be ma
So, let's not lose focus on the ecomomy...it's not too bad
Let's start by just looking at market action. After nearly a decade of underperformance US financials are showing relative strength. They are indeed cheap on a book basis. But can there be any visibility into earnings growth? Could the end of the Obama years lead to better banking futures? The bank index is now testing multi year highs and happened to be up big in yesterdays massive rally. Here you have the Dow Jones Transportation index.As you can imagine, this is a very cyclical index and i
Could there be a Brexit 2.0, and are the markets prepared?
Just as the Brexit outcome in the United Kingdom had very significant affects on global markets, I view real risk of a similar type of event happening in the United States with our Presidential election on Tuesday, November 8. Going into the vote in the UK, the world was sanguine about the chances of the British Citizenry actually voting for a "Leave". The punditry that nary has an independent thought and so often just writes what they are told, assured the world that the vote would be a non ev
There is a need for shelter-Bloomberg interview of Intellectus Chief Economist
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2016-10-14/there-is-a-need-for-shelter-in-the-storm-intellectus
Transfer of assets & business interests: Proposed Treasury Regulations Under IRC Section 2704 Would All But Eliminate Valuation Discounts
by Paul McGloin Client Considering Planning Transfers May Wish to Implement Them Prior to December 1st It is rare that a proposed Treasury Regulation gets much attention from estate planning practitioners, especially ones issued during the vacation month of August. However, on August 4th the IRS issued proposed Treasury Regulations under a little-used section of the Internal Revenue Code that may represent one of the biggest changes in estate planning law in the past thirty years. Planners aro
Of valuations
Not that I want to be the one spinning anything in equities at this point as positive, but, if you look at S&P valuations(courtesy bloomberg) based upon two particular metrics, you find that on a price/book AND a price/cash flow(trailing) you do NOT find overvaluation. In fact, if you consider the price/cashflow metric alone, it appears relatively inexpensive. Next, if you look at both trailing PE and estimated PE, the valuation falls into a mid range. But, this is NOT the case if you look
In spite of ourselves....
It's Your Brain, Man... According to research firm Dalbar, Inc. Behavior is the number one cause of investor underperformance. At Intellectus,along with key partners, we are in the midst of some very extensive work on investor behavior. According to our friend Dr. Thomas Oberlechner, former MIT and Harvard Behavioral economist and Senior psychologist to some of the worlds top hedge funds, more than 25% of an average investor return can be attributed to his or her behaviors. That is more than 2
Could the global economy stall in the coming months?
The intellectus Partners Chief Economist Ben Emons on Bloomberg TV, discusses the global economy, the timing of the next Fed rate hike and the possibility of the global economy stalling in the coming months. He speaks to Bloomberg's Ramy Inocencio and Yvonne Man on "Daybreak Asia." (Source: Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-10-06/could-the-global-economy-stall-in-coming-months
Has China been the only one keeping oil prices from collapsing?
In a great article by Steven Mufson, of the Washington Post, he profiles Orbital Insight, a company of which I am a founding board member. Our CEO, Dr. James Crawford has created a Deep Learning Convolutional Neural Network which is proving to be rather revolutionary to the world. Especially the world of Investing and finance. Based upon data analyzed in the following article, China's Strategic Petroleum Reserves are far larger than what was estimated. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ec
Ambition, Euphoria and Fear: Entrepreneurial Clients and How to Help Them
A startup’s founder may need help on a business plan and a pitch for funding, as well as on a financial plan http://www.wsj.com/articles/ambition-euphoria-and-fear-entrepreneurial-clients-and-how-to-help-them-1458590477