Now that the American electorate has spoken,it is time to sharpen our focus on how tho think through this political earthquake:
A "Republican" mandate? Not like you think...It's more like an Independant and a Republican Congress.
Who is DJT? Is he really a Republican in a traditional sense? It depends upon how you define "traditional"
I thought I would touch on some helpful historical analogies:
1.Today vs 1968-1980
2. DJT ~ Eisenhower and Teddy Roosevelt
Now vs 1968: An argument could be made that we have been in one of the most tumultuous periods in American History over the past decade or so.
It is evidenced in the stock market behavior of the last 15 years. We have had two of the largest bear markets in history(2000-02 and 2008/09). We have been at war (Iraq,Afghanistan,Isis, etc) for a generation and have suffered through a surge in Mass shootings and foreign as well as home based Terrorism.
We have had our beliefs in core institutions uprooted by the banks(the GFC), Government(wikileaks)...and even sports(the cubs won).
We saw a transformational President elected in 2008(Obama) and some of the greatest innovation the world has ever seen(Tech & Biotech, and Space). Now we may be witnessing what may be the beginning of a new phase in the political/economic structure of the world with Brexit, the Trump election and who knows what is next.....
But we have been here before, and it was worse then....
From the late 60's to the election of Ronald Reagan, the US stock market had a total return(1/69-11/80) of (-29%). The world was in complete disarray, much as it is today(or has been). Policies were turned upside down. Wars (Vietnam,Yom Kippur,Cold War) were all ongoing simultaneously.
We had a very popular President(Nixon) win re-election in a landslide. We had a VP (Spiro Agnew) who had to resign and step down. We had an impeachment process of a sitting US President(Nixon), and then his ultimate demise via resignation.
An amazing amount if innovation was bubbling beneath the surface.: The invention of the Microprocessor,Microsoft launched, Apple Computer founded, We landed a probe on Mars and the beginning of Advanced Biotech(Cloning)
Then we had the Oil embargo, gas lines, the "Misery Index" created and the Iranian Hostage Crisis.
Ronald Reagan, a B- level actor who was not taken seriously, won the US Presidency and changed it all with optimism, and supply side policies. Interest rates were soaring and the FED was forced(Volcker) to pivot Monetary Policy from an interest rate focus to a Money Supply mentality. This ultimately broke the rate cycle.
Eisenhower redux?
Christian Whiton argues that Trump appears to have copied much of his policies after Ike. From his nationalist rhetoric(Ike avoided Vietnam), to Illegal Immigration policies( Ike deported many illegal immigrants). And Ike was a big proponent of Infrastructure as he is responsible for building out the US Highway system.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-trump-could-be-ike-18310
Clearly his policies resulted in strong Stock Market performance during his Presidency
And then there was Teddy Roosevelt.
We all remember Teddy from our text books as the "Trust buster". Yes, he was actually a Republican. He was also the one responsible for going after Standard Oil , Rockefeller, and the Oil Barons. He thought too much power in the hands of too few was bad for the economy, bad for it's workers and bad for America.
We have touched on our greatest economic "concern" of a Trump Presidency, that is the risk of protectionism. But here is another analog of a great Republican President who , again had a similar perspective. In the analog of Teddy Roosevelt, it was vs big business, just as Trump has stated has stance against big business such as ATT/Time Warner.
...from Wikipedia:
"Roosevelt was a Progressive reformer who sought to move the dominant Republican Party into a more liberal camp. He distrusted wealthy businessmen and dissolved 44 monopolistic corporations as a "trust buster." He took care, however, to show that he did not disagree with trusts and capitalism in principle, but was only against their corrupt, illegal practices. His "Square Deal" included regulation of railroad rates and pure foods and drugs; he saw it as a fair deal for both the average citizen and the businessmen. He avoided labor strife and negotiated a settlement to the great Coal Strike of 1902."
-Sound familiar??
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